Our business plan

Draft Determination Representation

Latest information on our PR24 business plan

Since the submission of our Representations to Ofwat in August 2024, we've made changes to parts of our plan in response to requests from Ofwat or other regulators, please find below updated data tables published on 20 September 2024 and 21 November 2024.

Updated Data tables

Data tables - updated 21 November 2024

Additional Data Tables ADD22-23 - updated 21 November 2024

Additional Data tables ADD - updated 21 November 2024

AFW107 - Additional data tables ADD - updated 20 September 2024

AFW106 - Additional data tables ADD22-23 - updated 20 September 2024

AFW105 - Data tables - updated 20 September 2024

Following the publication of Ofwat’s draft Determination on 11th July 2024, we have submitted our response.

You can find a guide to our Representations along with the Representation document and appendices below.

Representation

• AFW100 - Guide to our Representation
• AFW101 - Affinity Water PR24 Draft Determination Representation

Appendices

• AFW102 - Review of Ofwat's smart metering assessment at PR24
• AFW103 - Connect 2050 supply interconnector modelling critique
• AFW108 - KPMG- Cost of embedded debt
• AFW109 - KPMG- Cost of new debt
• AFW110 - Economic insight impact of asset growth on systematic risk
• AFW111 - Economic Insight - Frontier shift report
• AFW112 - PFAS business case
• AFW113 - Water UK on treatment of energy costs in AMP8
• AFW114 - Representation proforma
• AFW134 - KPMG- Assurance of financial data tables, reconciliation models and financial model
• AFW135 - Uncertainty mechanism for PFAS (Notified item)
• AFW136 - Formal response to Dividend lock up after 70% gearing
• AFW137 - Formal response to Proposed licence modifications to Condition B: Charges
• AFW138 - Atkins - Data tables assurance
• AFW139 - Assurance of enhancement costs and 3rd party benchmarking
• AFW140 - Outline cases for support of the £8m allowance for climate change adaption
• AFW141 - Cyber security - Redacted
• AFW142 - Water UK investability study
• AFW143 - Centrus report
• AFW146 - Connect 2050 explainer
• AFW147 - Embedded emissions PC template /Bespoke Performance Commitment Definitions
• AFW149 - Economic Insight- Full RoRE method write up
• AFW150 - Security sensitive maps - Redacted
• AFW152 - KPMG- Cost of Equity
• AFW153 - Commercially sensitive information - Redacted
• AFW154 - Smart Metering PCD Working Group report

Data tables & commentary

• AFW104 - Data tables Commentaries
• AFW105 - Data tables V7 August
• AFW106 - Additional data tables ADD
• AFW107 - Additional data tables ADD22-23
• AFW121 - Data tables summary

Financial models

• AFW115 - Revenue forecasting incentive (RFI)
• AFW116 - Outcome delivery incentive (ODI) performance 2024-25
• AFW117 - Residential retail reconciliation
• AFW118 - Developer services revenue adjustment mechanism
• AFW119 - Water industry national environment programme (WINEP) reconciliation
• AFW120 - Outcome delivery incentive (ODI) performance 2023-24
• AFW122 - Cost sharing reconciliations
• AFW124 - Land Sales
• AFW125 - RPI-CPIH Wedge true up model
• AFW126 - Strategic regional water resources reconciliation
• AFW127 - RCV Adjustments model
• AFW128 - Revenue adjustments model
• AFW130 - Ofwat PR24 Financial model with our representation case
• AFW131 - Ofwat PR24 Financial model to data table mapping tool to accompany the tables and model
• AFW132 - Ofwat PR24 Bill waterfall model updated for our representation case
• AFW133a - Ofwat PR24 RoRE model draft Determination
• AFW133b - Ofwat PR24 RoRE model our Representation case

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Post submission publications

Latest information on our PR24 business plan

 

Since the submission of our PR24 business plan to Ofwat in October 2023, we have made changes to parts of our plan. These have been in response to requests from Ofwat or other regulators and to clarify some points in our original plan. The result of these changes to date is that Ofwat are now considering a PR24 business plan for Affinity Water that includes total expenditure of £2,127 million (up from £2,124 million in our October 2023 plan) and average annual customer bills of £217 by 2030, the same as in our October 2023 plan. Ofwat's draft determinations will be based on this expenditure and these bills.

The reason for the change to our total expenditure for PR24 and associated average annual customer bills is as a result of minor changes to align our WRMP and business plan and to correct a small number of inaccuracies. 

Calculation of PR24 business plan costs for publication - March 2024

PR24 - Part 1 Commentary - Outcomes (post submission 16-11-23)

PR24 - Part 3 Commentary - Costs (wholesale) water (post submission 16-11-23)

AFW - PR24 BP Tables V6 - Post submission update 25 January 2024

AFW - PR24 BP Tables V6 - Post submission update 8 February 2024

WINEP Reconciliation Model

Residential Retail Reconciliation Model

Our long term plan 2025 - 2050 (PDF 8.16MB)

PR24 Business Plan

• AFW00 - Guide to our plan
• AFW01 - Affinity Water PR24 Business Plan
• AFW39 - Customer version of the plan
• AFW51 - Affinity Water Long-Term Delivery Strategy
• AFW62 - Q&A signposting form

Appendices

• AFW02 - Past performance
• AFW03 - Strategic Direction Statement
• AFW04 - What customers and stakeholders want
• AFW05 - 'What customers and stakeholders want' methodology
• AFW06 - Developer experience
• AFW07 - Update on our resilience action plan
• AFW08 - Our investment development process
• AFW09 - Atkins assurance letter
• AFW10 - Accelerated Infrastructure Projects (AIP)
• AFW11 - Water UK Report and set of forecasts by Cornwall Insight
• AFW13 - Base investments
• AFW14a - Enhancement investment cases
• AFW14b - Enhancement investment cases
• AFW15 - Green finance framework
• AFW16 - Treatment of energy costs in base models (KMPG)
• AFW17 - Outcomes
• AFW18 - Bespoke performance commitments
• AFW19 - Price control deliverables
• AFW20 - RORE risk ranges - Economic Insights
• AFW21 - Financeability considerations
• AFW22 - Risk and Return cost of equity (KPMG)
• AFW23 - Inference analysis (KPMG)
• AFW24 - Record of board meetings
• AFW25 - Real price effects retail (KPMG)
• AFW26 - KPMG assurance letter
• AFW28 - PwC assurance letter
• AFW32 - Deliverability of our plans
• AFW34 - WISER report
• AFW36 - Independent Challenge Group report
• AFW37 - Dividend policy
• AFW38 - Remuneration policy
• AFW40 - Direct Procurement for Customers
• AFW41 - Case studies
• AFW42 - Cost adjustment claim - regional wages
• AFW43 - Cost adjustment claim - Transience - Economic Insight
• AFW45 - Affordability and acceptability research results (accent)
• AFW46 - First economics - PR24: Input price inflation
• AFW47 - Alternative WACC
• AFW48 - Centrus report

Data tables commentary

• AFW52 - PR24 - Part 1 Commentary - Outcomes
• AFW53 - PR24 - Part 2 Commentary - Risk & return
• AFW54 - PR24 - Part 3 Commentary - Costs (wholesale) water
• AFW55 - PR24 - Part 5 Commentary - Water resources
• AFW56 - PR24 - Part 7 Commentary - Retail
• AFW57 - PR24 - Part 8 Commentary - Developer services
• AFW58 - PR24 - Part 9 Commentary - Long term strategies
• AFW59 - PR24 - Part 10 Commentary - Supplementary tables
• AFW60 - PR24 - Part 12 Commentary - Past delivery
• AFW61 - Additional information request Energy Commentary
• AFW85 - PR24 - Part 11 Commentary - Summary tables

Data tables

• AFW63 - Additional information request - energy costs
• AFW82 - Affinity Water PR24 data tables

Financial models

• AFW35 - Bill calculations model (Long-Term Delivery Strategies bill projection)
• AFW64 - Ofwat financial model
• AFW65 - Waterfall model
• AFW66 - RORE model
• AFW67 - Revenue forecasting incentive (RFI)
• AFW68 - Part 1 of 2: Outcome delivery incentive (ODI) performance 2023-24
• AFW68 - Part 2 of 2: Outcome delivery incentive (ODI) performance 2023-24
• AFW69 - Residential retail reconciliation
• AFW70 - PR19 Water trading incentive
• AFW71 - Developer services revenue adjustment mechanism
• AFW72 - Water industry national environment programme (WINEP) reconciliation
• AFW73 - Cost of new debt reconciliation
• AFW74 - Gearing outperformance sharing mechanism
• AFW75 - Cost reconciliations
• AFW76 - Part 1 of 3: Tax Reconciliation
• AFW76 - Part 2 of 3: Tax Reconciliation
• AFW76 - Part 3 of 3: Tax Reconciliation
• AFW77 - Land Sales
• AFW78 - RPI-CPIH Wedge true up model
• AFW79 - Part 1 of 6: Strategic regional water resources reconciliation
• AFW79 - Part 2 of 6: Strategic regional water resources reconciliation
• AFW79 - Part 3 of 6: Strategic regional water resources reconciliation
• AFW79 - Part 4 of 6: Strategic regional water resources reconciliation
• AFW79 - Part 5 of 6: Strategic regional water resources reconciliation
• AFW79 - Part 6 of 6: Strategic regional water resources reconciliation
• AFW80 - RCV Adjustments model
• AFW81 - Revenue adjustments model
• AFW84 - Financial mapping tool

• AMP7 Enhancement Expenditure Action Plan (PDF 1.1MB) >
• Board Assurance Statement (PDF 763KB) >
• Draft Determination - Company Response (PDF 1.5MB) >
• Ofwat - Representation Pro-Forma (PDF 54KB) >

 

• Company response - Delivering outcomes for customers (PDF 3.17 MB) >
• Appendix A (Drought severe restrictions risk calculations) (PDF 126KB) >
• Appendix B (Drought certainty grade calculations) (PDF 127KB) >

 

• Company response - Cost efficiency (PDF 2MB) >
• Appendix D (Joint Statement) (PDF 734KB) >
• Appendix E (Letter AW to DWI) (PDF 484KB) >
• Appendix F (Guidance to Water Companies Metaldehyde) (PDF 201KB) >
• Appendix G (Metaldehyde and Pesticides Parameters) (PDF 159KB) >

 

• Company response - Financing and resilience (PDF 1MB) >
• Appendix A (Dividend Policy) (PDF 1.7MB) >
• Appendix B (Executive Pay) (PDF 1.7MB) >
• Appendix C (Verve Bill Profile customer Research) (PDF 2.6MB) >
• Appendix D (Experian Report for Affinity Water Phase 2) (PDF 1.25MB) >
• Appendix F (PAYG and RCV Run off) (PDF 848MB) >

 

• Data Tables >
• Developer Services Information Request >
• Outcomes Information Request >
• PR19 Split by Opex and Capex >
• Financial Data Tables Assurance Letter (PDF 320KB) >
• Technical Data Tables Assurance Report (PDF 688KB) >
• Data Tables Commentary (PDF 706KB) >
• Financial Model Actual >
• Financial Model Notional >
• Revenue Adjustments Feeder Model >
• WRFIM Feeder Model >
• Mapping Tool >

 

Revised Business Plan for 2020 to 2025

After our Business Plan for 2020 to 2025 was submitted to Ofwat in September 2018 after a review from Ofwat we received feedback from them in January 2019. We have carefully listened to Ofwat’s feedback and improved our September plan in a range of specific areas to deliver even more for our customers and communities.

We are going to do more for less, by:

• Reducing the average household bill. We now plan to reduce our average bill by 1.6% in real terms by 2025 compared to an increase of 2.1% in our September Plan;
• Stretching ourselves further through our commitments, including on leakage where we have increased our reduction target from 15% to 18.5% (equivalent to 30 Ml/d);
• Adding additional commitments that are dedicated to supporting customers in vulnerable circumstances, and those who will benefit from our Priority Services Register.

All the detail is included in our Revised Plan below.

• Revised Plan Executive Summary >
• Revised Plan Supplemental Board Assurance Statement >
• Revised Plan Guidance Note >
• Action Tracker >
• Customer Challenge Group Report >

 

• Engaging Customers Evidence Document >
• Engaging Customers Appendices >
• Addressing Vulnerability & Affordability Evidence Document >
• Addressing Vulnerability & Affordability Appendices >
• Delivering Outcomes for Customers Evidence Document >
• Delivering Outcomes for Customers Appendices >
• Securing Long Term Resilience Evidence Document >
• Securing Long Term Resilience Appendices >
• Targeted Controls, Markets and Innovation Evidence Document >
• Targeted Controls, Markets and Innovation Appendices >
• Securing Cost Efficiency Evidence Document >
• Securing Cost Efficiency Appendices >
• Aligning Risk and Return Evidence Document >
• Aligning Risk and Return Appendices >
• Accounting for Past Delivery Evidence Document >
• Accounting for Past Delivery Appendices >
• Securing Confidence and Assurance Evidence Document >
• Securing Confidence and Assurance Appendices >

 

• Data Tables (Tables APP21 and WR7 fully redacted as they are commercially sensitive) >
• Data Table Commentary >

Business plan for 2020 to 2025

Our Business Plan 2020 to 2025 (PDF 20.7MB)
Our Business Plan 2020 to 2025 Executive Summary (PDF 1.1MB)
Our Business Plan 2020 to 2025 Board Assurance Statement (PDF 1.8MB)

Ofwat pro forma

Business Plan Presentation Pro-forma (PDF 3.4MB)
Business Plan Presentation Guidance Tables (XLSX 127KB)
Bill Waterfall Model (XLSM 321KB)

Financial model

Affinity Water Ofwat Financial Model (XLSB 8.8MB)

PR19 data tables

PR19 Data Tables (XLSB 5.1MB)
PR19 Data Table Commentaries (PDF 3.6MB)

Appendices

Appendix 1 - Business Plan Glossary (PDF 390KB)
Appendix A - Guidance Note (PDF 642KB)
Appendix B - WISER Report (PDF 829KB)
Appendix 2 - Our Track Record (PDF 1.7MB)
Appendix 3 – Listening to Customers and Stakeholders (PDF 44.3MB)
Appendix 4 – Our Outcomes and Performance Commitments (PDF 9.7MB)
Appendix 5 – Trading Procurement Code and Bid Assessment Framework (PDF 1.6MB)
Appendix 6 – Wholesale Technical Support Document (PDF 14.5MB)
Appendix 7 – Delivering Great Customer Service (PDF 3MB)
Appendix 8 – Our Community Approach (PDF 1.8MB)
Appendix 9 – Ensuring Long Term Resilience (PDF 5.5MB)
Appendix 10 – Ensuring Affordability and Financeability (PDF 11.3MB)
Appendix 11 – Governance and Assurance (PDF 4.7MB)

Business plan for 2015 to 2020

Business Plan (PDF 3MB)
Business Plan Consultation (PDF 1.2MB)
Business Plan Summary Brochure (PDF 1.2MB)
Draft Determinations (PDF 209KB)
CSG Response to OFWAT (PDF 63KB)
Recalibrated Incentives and Board Assurance Statement
Risk and Reward submission (PDF 3.1MB)