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Southeast Region
*The long term average (LTA) has been calculated statistically, using the long term data record for this hydrograph. The respective drought zones are used as operational triggers, and have been derived using the LTA.
*Drought zone 1 is the LTA in Southeast region.
Rainfall in our Southeast region was below average in August at 55% of the Long Term Average (LTA)). However, over the last three months (June to August inclusive), our Southeast region has received average rainfall (100% of the LTA) but slightly below average effective precipitation (94% of the LTA). Soil dryness (Soil Moisture Deficit) remains above average levels for the time of year, meaning that any forthcoming rainfall is unlikely to contribute significantly to groundwater recharge until soils are wetter. Note that summer effective precipitation levels (the amount of rainfall which reaches groundwater) are usually low.
Groundwater levels continue to decline just below the LTA at a similar trajectory and entered Environmental Stress on 30 August. Under 100% and 120% rainfall scenarios, groundwater levels are forecast to continue to track close to the LTA over the next seven months with 120% scenario rising above the LTA by November and continuing to stay above it. Under a 60 % or 40 % LTA rainfall scenario, groundwater levels could approach drought zone 1 in the winter, which would pose an elevated risk of low groundwater levels next year- whether this manifests will be driven by winter rainfall levels.
Please refer to our Drought Plan for what this means for us and our customers.